Cancellations plus returns equal 50% of orders.
A women's footwear brand in Egypt on Shopify. Six years selling through messages, and only three months since launching a website.
And before blaming the courier: they have their own drivers covering all of Cairo, and orders come from Tagamoa, Zayed and October. So it isn't geography and it isn't the driver.
Break it down the way he did across three months.
Cancellations average 16%. Of those, 40% are "the customer changed their mind for no reason," 40% simply don't answer, and the rest are travel and circumstances.
Returns average 32%. Of those, 40% refuse delivery or don't answer, 20% are the wrong size, and 10% are "the product isn't what I expected."
Now read those numbers again carefully.
"Changed their mind for no reason" plus "doesn't answer" equals 80% of cancellations.
That isn't a customer unhappy with a product that arrived. That's a customer who bought without being convinced in the first place. They bought on impulse from the ad, and two hours later the impulse was gone.
So the ad is successfully producing weak intent, and operations pays for it afterwards: packing, shipping, return, shipping again.
The fix isn't faster phone confirmation. They already confirm 80% the same day. The fix sits before the purchase.
First, the ad and the page should add useful friction: clear sizing, a size chart in centimetres, and video of the product on a real foot. You don't want everyone to buy. You want the people who will accept delivery to buy.
Second, shipping cost isn't the problem, but make partial prepayment an option with a small discount. Someone who has paid a deposit upfront doesn't refuse delivery.
Third, cut the cancelling audience: exclude from targeting anyone who cancelled or refused delivery in the last 90 days.
Fourth, six years of message selling means a brand people trust in chat. The new website hasn't inherited that trust yet, so put reviews and UGC in the first scroll.
The number to watch from here isn't ROAS. It's the return after cancellations and refunds are deducted.
The lesson
Ads bring weak intent and operations pay for it
